Predictive Insights for Biosecurity and Global Health
This page hosts live prediction markets designed to explore and anticipate key developments in infectious disease, health policy, and biosecurity. By harnessing the collective judgement of informed participants, these markets provide a dynamic and transparent method for assessing the likelihood of emerging threats and strategic responses. Forecasts are grounded in publicly available data and updated in real time, offering valuable insight into the evolving landscape of global health and national preparedness. These tools support Beyond the Horizon Project’s mission to promote evidence-based policy and forward-thinking strategies in a complex and uncertain world.
Emergence of Novel Human Infectious Diseases by End of 2025
This market forecasts whether the World Health Organization will publicly identify a previously unrecorded human infectious disease before 31 December 2025. A "novel" disease refers to a pathogen not previously known to infect humans, including viruses, bacteria, or other agents. The outcome will be resolved based on official WHO communications or Disease Outbreak News releases confirming such a discovery.
Will a Novel Disease Identified by 2025 Cause Over 100 Deaths by End of 2027?
This market forecasts whether a novel human infectious disease, publicly identified by the World Health Organization on or before 31 December 2025, will cause over 100 confirmed deaths globally by 31 December 2027. The outcome will be resolved based on official WHO situation reports, Disease Outbreak News releases, or data from national public health agencies confirming the global death toll.